{"id":941,"date":"2017-10-16T17:01:06","date_gmt":"2017-10-16T15:01:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nazor.org\/?page_id=941"},"modified":"2017-11-09T17:51:30","modified_gmt":"2017-11-09T16:51:30","slug":"hybridni-valky-3-predpoved-dalsich-hybridnich-valek","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.nazor.org\/?page_id=941","title":{"rendered":"Hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky 3. P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f dal\u0161\u00edch hybridn\u00edch v\u00e1lek"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky 3. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f dal\u0161\u00edch hybridn\u00edch v\u00e1lek<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/orientalreview.org\/2016\/03\/18\/hybrid-wars-3-predicting-the-next-hybrid-wars\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">origin\u00e1l zdroj<\/a> &#8211; vlastn\u00ed p\u0159eklad 16.10.2017<\/p>\n<p><strong>Andrej Korybko (Russia)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Revize teorie<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Identifikace c\u00edl\u016f<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Prvn\u00ed dva d\u00edly t\u00e9to s\u00e9rie n\u00e1s uvedly do nov\u00e9ho konceptu teorie hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky a v\u0161e \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b prok\u00e1zaly testem na situaci s S\u00fdrii a na Ukrajin\u011b. To prok\u00e1zalo existenci metodiky pro vysv\u011btlen\u00ed a anal\u00fdzu hybridn\u00edch v\u00e1lek. Znamen\u00e1 to tak\u00e9, \u017ee teorie\u00a0m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt\u00a0vzru\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem\u00a0proaktivn\u011b pou\u017eita p\u0159i pokusu p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bt m\u00edsta, kam by tato postmodern\u00ed v\u00e1lka mohla b\u00fdt nasm\u011brov\u00e1na d\u00e1le. Pokud chcete, m\u016f\u017eete si z\u00e1kon hybridn\u00edho v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed zopakovat v \u010d\u00e1sti I.:<\/p>\n<p><em>\u00a0&#8222;Hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem stoj\u00edc\u00edm za hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lkou je p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed multipol\u00e1rn\u00edch nadn\u00e1rodn\u00edch spojovac\u00edch projekt\u016f pomoc\u00ed zvn\u011bj\u0161ku provokovan\u00fdch konflikt\u016f identity (etnick\u00fdch, n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fdch, region\u00e1ln\u00edch, politick\u00fdch, apod.) uvnit\u0159 c\u00edlov\u00e9ho tranzitn\u00edho st\u00e1tu.&#8220;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Vzhledem k tomu je dal\u0161\u00edm krokem zji\u0161\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edch nebo pl\u00e1novan\u00fdch\u00a0multipol\u00e1rn\u00edch nadn\u00e1rodn\u00edch spojovac\u00edch projekt\u016f nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d sv\u011btem. Jakmile je toto ur\u010deno, je ka\u017ed\u00fd tranzitn\u00ed st\u00e1t posuzov\u00e1n podle po\u010dtu zraniteln\u00fdch m\u00edst a soci\u00e1ln\u011b politick\u00fdch p\u0159ekryv\u016f podle n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch 6 faktor\u016f:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>etnicita<\/li>\n<li>n\u00e1bo\u017eenstv\u00ed<\/li>\n<li>historie<\/li>\n<li>administrativn\u00ed hranice<\/li>\n<li>socio-ekonomick\u00e1 nerovnost<\/li>\n<li>fyzick\u00e1 geografie<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Odtud\u00a0zb\u00fdv\u00e1 jen p\u0159esn\u011b stanovit nejv\u00edce socio-politicky zraniteln\u00fdch tranzitn\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f a zp\u011btn\u011b zkoumat\u00a0podm\u00ednky,\u00a0nezbytn\u00e9 pro zd\u016frazn\u011bn\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 demografick\u00e9 protivl\u00e1dn\u00ed &#8222;odluky&#8220; od \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edch org\u00e1n\u016f. Kulturn\u00ed antropologov\u00e9, historici, aktivist\u00e9 nevl\u00e1dn\u00edch organizac\u00ed, medi\u00e1ln\u00ed a marketingov\u00ed odborn\u00edci a &#8222;nez\u00e1visl\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00edci&#8220; mimo jin\u00e9 hraj\u00ed p\u0159edn\u00ed roli v tomto procesu soci\u00e1ln\u00edho p\u0159edkondicionov\u00e1n\u00ed a mohou b\u00fdt tak\u00e9 ned\u00edln\u011b vyu\u017eiti americkou rozv\u011bdkou p\u0159i vysv\u011btlov\u00e1n\u00ed nej\u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch metod, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed b\u00fdt pou\u017eity v ideologick\u00e9m pronik\u00e1n\u00ed do psychiky\u00a0c\u00edlov\u00fdch osob. Sou\u010dasn\u011b s t\u00edm doch\u00e1z\u00ed k r\u016fzn\u00fdm stup\u0148\u016fm struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159edkondicionov\u00e1n\u00ed, aby se zintenz\u00edvnilo um\u011ble vytvo\u0159en\u00e9 d\u011blen\u00ed mezi st\u00e1tem a strategick\u00fdmi prvky jeho ob\u010danstv\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong><em>Civiliza\u010dn\u00ed a ob\u010dansk\u00e9 vlastenectv\u00ed<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lka je v podstat\u011b v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm(zbra\u0148ov\u00fdm) vyu\u017eit\u00edm <a href=\"http:\/\/ssi.armywarcollege.edu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">teorie chaosu<\/a>\u00a0&#8211;<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Chaos_theory\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> wiki<\/a>, kter\u00e1\u00a0sama o sob\u011b je nep\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch p\u0159ed destabilizac\u00ed. Jak u\u017e bylo \u0159e\u010deno, soci\u00e1ln\u011b-politick\u00e9 zranitelnosti v ka\u017ed\u00e9m c\u00edlov\u00e9m st\u00e1t\u011b jsou d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdmi ukazateli p\u0159i m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9ho \u00fasp\u011bchu p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed operace zm\u011bny re\u017eimu, av\u0161ak \u0161est hlavn\u00edch faktor\u016f je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 m\u011bnit (nato\u017e v kr\u00e1tk\u00e9m \u010dasov\u00e9m r\u00e1mci) tak,\u00a0aby mohly b\u00fdt\u00a0agresorem pln\u011b vyu\u017eity. Kv\u016fli tomu posiluje svou roli soci\u00e1ln\u00ed a struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159edkondicionov\u00e1n\u00ed, proto\u017ee my\u0161len\u00ed a ekonomick\u00e9 trendy jsou mnohem n\u00e1chyln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed k\u00a0zasa\u017een\u00ed a zm\u011bn\u00e1m, ne\u017e nap\u0159\u00edklad etnick\u00e9 slo\u017een\u00ed a provin\u010dn\u00ed hranice. Oba tyto charakteristick\u00e9 znaky (ovlivn\u011bn\u00e9 soci\u00e1ln\u00ed a struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159edkondicionac\u00ed) mohou siln\u011b ovlivnit civiliza\u010dn\u00ed a\/nebo ob\u010dansk\u00e9 vlastenectv\u00ed c\u00edlov\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f, co\u017e je nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed obrana, kterou m\u00e1 st\u00e1t p\u0159i odpuzov\u00e1n\u00ed hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n<p>Pr\u00e1v\u011b v tomto okam\u017eiku je vhodn\u00e9 znovu p\u0159ipomenout p\u0159\u00edpady S\u00fdrie a Ukrajiny, proto\u017ee ka\u017ed\u00e1 ze obou zem\u00ed\u00a0postupovala naprosto odli\u0161nou trajektori\u00ed, kter\u00e1 z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti vypl\u00fdvala z jejich odli\u0161n\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b civiliza\u010dn\u00edho \/ ob\u010dansk\u00e9ho vlastenectv\u00ed p\u0159ed hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lkou, kter\u00e1 proti\u00a0nim byla vedena. Tato po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed podm\u00ednka je nepochybn\u011b nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159i ur\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed, zda destabilizace bude trvat roky nebo zda bude rychl\u00e1 se snadn\u00fdm \u00fasp\u011bchem.<\/p>\n<p>Syrsk\u00fd lid m\u00e1 jedno z nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edch civiliza\u010dn\u00edch vlastenectv\u00ed na sv\u011bt\u011b, co\u017e pr\u00e1v\u011b zes\u00edlilo odolnost jejich zem\u011b, aby odol\u00e1vala multidimenzion\u00e1ln\u00ed agresi hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky. V d\u016fsledku toho musely USA a jejich spojenci poskytovat neust\u00e1lou podporu jejich z\u00e1stupn\u00fdm prvk\u016fm, aby nep\u0159irozen\u011b udr\u017eovali chaotick\u00e9 procesy, u\u00a0kter\u00fdch o\u010dek\u00e1vali, \u017ee pob\u011b\u017e\u00ed samosp\u00e1dem. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee by byla takov\u00e1 pomoc p\u0159eru\u0161ena, p\u0159enesla by se tak p\u0159\u00edmo do viditeln\u00e9ho oslaben\u00ed prvk\u016f hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky uvnit\u0159 zem\u011b a v d\u016fsledku toho by vedla k jejich rychl\u00e9 likvidaci.<\/p>\n<p>Naopak situace na Ukrajin\u011b byla diametr\u00e1ln\u011b odli\u0161n\u00e1,\u00a0nebyl p\u0159\u00edtomen \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd prvek civiliza\u010dn\u00edho vlastenectv\u00ed (navzdory bohat\u00e9mu odkazu Kyjevsk\u00e9 Rusi) a sotva existovalo n\u011bjak\u00e9 ob\u010dansk\u00e9 vlastenectv\u00ed. V\u0161echno co USA musely ud\u011blat, bylo efektivn\u011b uspo\u0159\u00e1dat vlastn\u00ed aktiva a d\u00e1t jim sign\u00e1l, aby zah\u00e1jili svou destabiliza\u010dn\u00ed \u010dinnost\u00a0spole\u010dn\u011b. Chaotick\u00e9 procesy pak prob\u00edhaly jako v ide\u00e1ln\u00ed teoretick\u00e9 rovin\u011b a\u00a0za\u010daly si \u017e\u00edt sv\u00fdm vlastn\u00edm \u017eivotem, vy\u017eaduj\u00edc od tohoto okam\u017eiku minim\u00e1ln\u00ed pokyny, ve\u00a0srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se strategick\u00fdm t\u0159eskem, do n\u011bho\u017e se USA dostaly v S\u00fdrii. Jedin\u00fdm v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm z\u00e1sahem, j\u00edm\u017e se USA zab\u00fdvaly, byla\u00a0&#8222;<a href=\"https:\/\/orientalreview.org\/2015\/09\/11\/the-snipers-massacre-on-the-maidan-in-ukraine\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">fale\u0161n\u00e1 vlajka<\/a>&#8220; na konci \u00fanora, a to jen proto, \u017ee c\u00edtili neodolatelnou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost maximalizovat chaos a rychle se zbavit vl\u00e1dy.<\/p>\n<p>Abychom shrnuli tuto pod\u010d\u00e1st, dva jasn\u011b odli\u0161n\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edklady hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky v S\u00fdrii a na Ukrajin\u011b dokazuj\u00ed, \u017ee po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed stav civiliza\u010dn\u00edho a \/ nebo ob\u010dansk\u00e9ho vlastenectv\u00ed je rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm faktorem ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edm pr\u016fb\u011bh asymetrick\u00e9ho konfliktu, a proto by se m\u011blo uk\u00e1zat demokratick\u00fd bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm odborn\u00edk\u016fm jak\u00fd m\u00e1 existenci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdznam aktivn\u00ed podpora t\u011bchto opat\u0159en\u00ed v r\u00e1mci sv\u00fdch vlastn\u00edch c\u00edlen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f.<\/p>\n<p><em>\u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Rozpoutan\u00fd hn\u011bv<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky 3. P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f dal\u0161\u00edch hybridn\u00edch v\u00e1lek origin\u00e1l zdroj &#8211; vlastn\u00ed p\u0159eklad 16.10.2017 Andrej Korybko (Russia) Revize teorie Identifikace c\u00edl\u016f Prvn\u00ed dva d\u00edly t\u00e9to s\u00e9rie n\u00e1s uvedly do nov\u00e9ho konceptu teorie hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky a v\u0161e \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b prok\u00e1zaly testem na situaci&hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"more-link-p\"><a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nazor.org\/?page_id=941\">Read more &rarr;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":911,"menu_order":3,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-941","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nazor.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/941","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nazor.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nazor.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nazor.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nazor.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=941"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.nazor.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/941\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":967,"href":"https:\/\/www.nazor.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/941\/revisions\/967"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nazor.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/911"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nazor.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=941"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}